
When we talk about Linux and Windows, we could just be honest. We could say that something like this has never really happened before. The computer industry, especially the desktop PC industry, is too new. We have Windows, an established, ubiquitous, near-monopoly on business and home desktops, versus Linux, a new clone of an even older OS, but with all sorts of excitement, buzz, and development around it, being given away for free (I know that if you go Red Hat or Novell, etc, you will pay — but remember, they didn’t develop Linux from scratch; the reason they have a product at all is because Linux is free). We could shrug our shoulders and admit that this has never happened before, and we have no idea what the future will bring.
But that’s boring.
Instead, some of us constantly talk about how Linux will inevitably take over the world. Some people say this because they think it will, some because they simply hope it will, and others because they are simply journalists and somebody else told them that it will.
On the other hand, some talk about how Linux is not ready, or will never be ready, and infinite variations on this theme.
It seems that we need to say one or the other, because saying that we just don’t know is not interesting or provocative enough.
In this latter vein, Tom Yager (back page of InfoWorld) has announced to us that we may stop proclaiming the inevitable victory of Linux. It’s not inevitable, he says; it’s impossible.
Now, I like Tom; I generally just plain like InfoWorld, it’s a decent trade magazine, usually at least one or two articles or items of interest every month. I disagree with him, though. To be honest, I’m not even sure that Tom believes this. I almost feel like he’s just decided to be as dogmatic, extreme, and contrary as possible just to provoke discussion. Well, it probably worked; I’m joining the talk, for one.
Here it is; Tom’s argument is basically that Windows is a platform and Linux is not. He does not waste valuable space explaining in detail his reasons for declaring this; we are smart people, apparently it should be self evident.
Here’s one problem with Tom’s assessment; he makes the statement that Linux will never make a dent in Windows mindshare or marketshare. I’m under the impression that Linux has already done this; there are thousands of developers, and tens of thousands of corporate and home desktops, using Linux. Now, perhaps this number is simply too small to qualify as a "dent". That’s fair; maybe it is. It must be large enough to have given Red Hat over $190 million in revenue last year; $190 million that did not go to Microsoft. I don’t have Microsoft’s revenue statements on hand, but it’s possible that this number, also, does not qualify as a "dent." All the same, I doubt that it’s a number which is pleasing to Microsoft’s marketing department.
The other problem is this; at the end of the article, he posits that while Linux is not a platform, and ergo not a threat to Windows, OS X (plus Java, he thinks) is. Come again? OS X is a wonderful operating system, and its proponents often love to mention that it is based on Unix. On FreeBSD unix, in fact. So, my question would be, if it can be done with FreeBSD, why can’t it be done with Linux? If Apple can take Darwin and build OS X on it, why couldn’t Novell, (or whoever) take Linux and build… NewGroovyOS on top of it? The answer has to be, well, of course someone could.
Tom’s reply may be (I’m only guessing) that sure, someone could do that, but then it wouldn’t be Linux anymore. It would be something else.
We could say that, but I think we might be splitting hairs too fine if we did. I think Tom has a point, but if and only if you hold the same assumptions, and the same definitions of what a "platform" is, that he presupposes.
My own take is that if you look at the bigger picture, Tom is wrong. Microsoft could topple; nothing in the corporate world has ever been immutable. By the same token, Microsoft may very well not topple, but if so it will not be because Linux is not a "platform."
I don’t think we know what will happen yet, and therefore we can’t possibly know why or how. But in the meantime, we’ll all keep pretending that we do, because it’s more interesting that way.
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